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1 answer:
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Answer:
a) 0.4658 = 46.58% probability that the chosen ball is blue
b) 0.322 = 32.2% probability that it came from the first urn
Step-by-step explanation:
A probability is the number of desired outcomes divided by the number of total outcomes.
Conditional Probability
We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is
In which
P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.
is the probability of both A and B happening.
P(A) is the probability of A happening.
a. What is the probability that the chosen ball is blue?
6/20 = 0.3 of 0.5(first urn)
12/19 = 0.6316 out of 0.5(second urn).
So
0.4658 = 46.58% probability that the chosen ball is blue.
b. If the chosen ball is blue, what is the probability that it came from the first urn?
Event A: Blue Ball
Event B: From first urn
From item a.,
Probability of blue ball from first urn:
0.3 of 0.5. So
Probability:
0.322 = 32.2% probability that it came from the first urn