Answer:
<h3>Benzion Barlev of New York University</h3>
NEGOTIATION OF A LONG-TERM CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT
a. The probability that the contract will be profitable for the contractor is:
= 81%
b. The probability that the project will result in a loss for the contractor is:
= 19%
c. The value of R that the contractor should strive for in order to have a .99 probability of making a profit is:
= $1,246,100.
Explanation:
a) Data and Calculations:
Mean total cost (x) = $850,000
Standard deviation = $170,000
Revenue = $1,000,000
Probability of being profitable = (R - x)/std deviation
= ($1,000,000 - $850,000)/$170,000
= $150,000/$170,000
= 0.882
From Z table, 0.882 = 0.81057 = 81%
Probability of loss = 19% (100 - 81%)
To have a 99% (0.99) probability of making a profit, Z value = 2.33 from the Z table:
(R - x)/std deviation = 2.33
(R - x) = 2.33 * $170,000
= $396,100
(R - $850,000) = $396,100
R = $396,100 + $850,000
R = $1,246,100
