Question

a slitter assembly contains 48 blades five blades are selected at random and evaluated each day for sharpness if any dull blade is found the assembly is replaced with a newly sharpened set of blades if 10 of the blades in an assembly are dull, what is the probability that the assembly is replaced the first day it is evaluated?

Answer 1

Answer:

P(at least 1 dull blade)=0.7068

Step-by-step explanation:

I hope this helps.

This is what it's called dependent event probability, with the added condition that at least 1 out of 5 blades picked is dull, because from your selection of 5, you only need one defective to decide on replacing all.

So if you look at this from another perspective, you have only one event that makes it so you don't change the blades: that 5 out 5 blades picked are sharp. You also know that the probability of changing the blades plus the probability of not changing them is equal to 100%, because that involves all the events possible.

P(at least 1 dull blade out of 5)+Probability(no dull blades out of 5)=1

P(at least 1 dull blade)=1-P(no dull blades)

But the event of picking one blade is dependent of the previous picking, meaning there is no chance of picking the same blade twice.

So you have 38/48 on getting a sharp one on your first pick, then 37/47 (since you remove 1 sharp from the possibilities, and 1 from the whole lot), and so on.

Also since are consecutive events, you need to multiply the events.

The probability that the assembly is replaced the first day is:

P(at least 1 dull blade)=1-P(no dull blades)

$P(at least 1 dull blade)=1-(\frac{38}{48}* \frac{37}{47} *\frac{36}{46}*\frac{35}{45}*\frac{34}{44})$

$P(at least 1 dull blade)=1-0.2931$

P(at least 1 dull blade)=0.7068