Question

An automated egg carton loader has a 1% probability of cracking an egg, and a customer will complain if more than one egg per dozen is cracked. Assume each egg load is an independent event.
(a) What is the distribution of cracked eggs per dozen ? Include parame-ter values.

(b) What is the probability that a carton of a dozen eggs results in more than one cracked egg ?

(c) Approximate the probability that among 100 dozen of eggs (i.e. 1200 eggs), there will be at most 1 cracked egg in total.

(d) What is the probability that we need more than 100 loaded eggs to observed a cracked egg?

Answer 1

Answer:

a) Binomial distribution B(n=12,p=0.01)

b) P=0.007

c) P=0.999924

d) P=0.366

Step-by-step explanation:

a) The distribution of cracked eggs per dozen should be a binomial distribution B(12,0.01), as it can model 12 independent events.

b) To calculate the probability of having a carton of dozen eggs with more than one cracked egg, we will first calculate the probabilities of having zero or one cracked egg.

$P(k=0)=\binom{12}{0}p^0(1-p)^{12}=1*1*0.99^{12}=1*0.886=0.886\\\\P(k=1)=\binom{12}{1}p^1(1-p)^{11}=12*0.01*0.99^{11}=12*0.01*0.895=0.107$

Then,

$P(k>1)=1-(P(k=0)+P(k=1))=1-(0.886+0.107)=1-0.993=0.007$

c) In this case, the distribution is B(1200,0.01)

$P(k=0)=\binom{1200}{0}p^0(1-p)^{12}=1*1*0.99^{1200}=1* 0.000006 = 0.000006 \\\\ P(k=1)=\binom{1200}{1}p^1(1-p)^{1199}=1200*0.01*0.99^{1199}=1200*0.01* 0.000006 \\\\P(k=1)= 0.00007\\\\\\P(k\leq1)=0.000006+0.000070=0.000076\\\\\\P(k>1)=1-P(k\leq 1)=1-0.000076=0.999924$

d) In this case, the distribution is B(100,0.01)

We can calculate this probability as the probability of having 0 cracked eggs in a batch of 100 eggs.

$P(k=0)=\binom{100}{0}p^0(1-p)^{100}=0.99^{100}=0.366$