Question

Professor Shethinks Shesverybusy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The professor has gathered the following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 What would be this week's forecast for student appointments using exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.2, if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?

Answer 1

Answer: This Week's forecast  = 78 appointments

Explanation:

4 Weeks ago = 95 , 3 Weeks ago =80 , 2 Weeks ago = 65 , last Week = 50

forecast : 2 weeks ago = 90

alpha = 0.20

exponential smoothing = recent previous appointment x a + forecast(1-a)

Forecast (last week) = 65 x 0.20 + 90 x (1 - 0.20)

Forecast (last week) = 13 + 72 = 85

Forecast for this week = 50 x 0.20 + 85 x (1 - 0.20)

Forecast for this week = 10 + 68 = 78

This Week's forecast would be 78 appointments