Question

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics it takes an average of 16 weeks for young workers to find a new job. Assume that the probability distribution is normal and that the standard deviation is two weeks. What is the probability that 20 young workers average less than 15 weeks to find a job?

Answer 1

Answer:

1.25% probability that 20 young workers average less than 15 weeks to find a job

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal probability distribution:

Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$, the zscore of a measure X is given by:

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem:

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a random variable X, with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$, the sample means with size n of at least 30 can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$

In this problem, we have that:

$\mu = 16, \sigma = 2, n = 20, s = \frac{2}{\sqrt{20}} = 0.4472$

What is the probability that 20 young workers average less than 15 weeks to find a job?

This is the pvalue of Z when X = 15. So

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

By the Central Limit Theorem

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}$

$Z = \frac{15 - 16}{0.4472}$

$Z = -2.24$

$Z = -2.24$ has a pvalue of 0.0125.

1.25% probability that 20 young workers average less than 15 weeks to find a job