Answer:
11.51% probability that it will take less than 450 days to train all the contestants.
Step-by-step explanation:
To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.
Normal probability distribution
When the distribution is normal, we use the z-score formula.
In a set with mean
and standard deviation
, the zscore of a measure X is given by:
![Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=Z%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BX%20-%20%5Cmu%7D%7B%5Csigma%7D)
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean
and standard deviation
, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean
and standard deviation
.
For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.
For the sum of n variables, the mean is
and the standard deviation is ![s = \sigma\sqrt{n}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=s%20%3D%20%5Csigma%5Csqrt%7Bn%7D)
In this question:
![n = 100, \mu = 100*5 = 500, s = 4\sqrt{100} = 40](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=n%20%3D%20100%2C%20%5Cmu%20%3D%20100%2A5%20%3D%20500%2C%20s%20%3D%204%5Csqrt%7B100%7D%20%3D%2040)
Approximate the probability that it will take less than 450 days to train all the contestants.
This is the pvalue of Z when X = 450.
![Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=Z%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BX%20-%20%5Cmu%7D%7B%5Csigma%7D)
By the Central Limit Theorem
![Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=Z%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BX%20-%20%5Cmu%7D%7Bs%7D)
![Z = \frac{450 - 500}{40}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=Z%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7B450%20-%20500%7D%7B40%7D)
![Z = -1.2](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=Z%20%3D%20-1.2)
has a pvalue of 0.1151
11.51% probability that it will take less than 450 days to train all the contestants.