Answer:
62.93%
Step-by-step explanation:
We have to solve it by a Poisson distribution, where:
p (x = n) = e ^ (- l) * l ^ (x) / x!
Where he would come being the number of birds that there would be in 40 minutes, we know that in 2 hours, that is 120 minutes there are 13, therefore in 40 there would be:
l = 13 * 40/120
l = 4,333
Now, we have p (x> 3) and that is equal to:
p (x> 3) = 1 - p (x <= 3)
So, we calculate the probability from 0 to 3:
p (x = 0) = 2.72 ^ (- 4.33) * 4.33 ^ (0) / 0! = 0.01313
p (x = 1) = 2.72 ^ (- 4.33) * 4.33 ^ (1) / 1! = 0.0568
p (x = 2) = 2.72 ^ (- 4.33) * 4.33 ^ (2) / 2! = 0.12310
p (x = 3) = 2.72 ^ (- 4.33) * 4.33 ^ (3) / 3! = 0.17767
If we add each one:
0.01313 + 0.0568 + 0.12310 + 0.17767 = 0.3707
replacing:
p (x> 3) = 1 - 0.3707
p (x> 3) = 0.6293
Which means that the probability is 62.93%
