Question

If Michigan had 24 deaths from extreme cold in the last 20 years, what is the risk they will have a death this year? (very unlikely, unlikely, likely, very likely) Provide evidence.

Answer 1

Answer: Very Likely

Explanation:

Michigan has had 24 deaths from extreme cold in the last 20 years.

This is a rate of:

= 24 / 20

= 1.2 deaths per year.

For something to be considered ''very likely'' to occur, the chances of that thing occurring needs to be above 90%.

Going by the deaths per year, the probability is more than 90% at 120%. It is therefore very likely that there will be a death from extreme cold.