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3 years ago

Is this correct ? F(4)=2(4 -1) (4-5) F=-0.6666

Mathematics

1 answer:

Mazyrski [523]3 years ago

8 0

Answer: no, Im pretty sure it’s just F(4)=-6

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Lenovo uses the zx-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. the prices for the chip during the last 12 months were as follows:

Stella [2.4K]

Given the table below of the prices for the Lenovo zx-81 chip during the last 12 months

$\begin{tabular}
{|c|c|c|c|}
Month&Price per Chip&Month&Price per Chip\\[1ex]
January&\$1.90&July&\$1.80\\
February&\$1.61&August&\$1.83\\
March&\$1.60&September&\$1.60\\
April&\$1.85&October&\$1.57\\
May&\$1.90&November&\$1.62\\
June&\$1.95&December&\$1.75
\end{tabular}$

The forcast for a period $F_{t+1}$ is given by the formular

$F_{t+1}=\alpha A_t+(1-\alpha)F_t$

where $A_t$ is the actual value for the preceding period and $F_t$ is the forcast for the preceding period.

Part 1A:
Given α = 0.1 and the initial forecast for october of $1.83, the actual value for october is $1.57.

Thus, the forecast for period 11 is given by:

$F_{11}=\alpha A_{10}+(1-\alpha)F_{10} \\ \\ =0.1(1.57)+(1-0.1)(1.83) \\ \\ =0.157+0.9(1.83)=0.157+1.647 \\ \\ =1.804$

Therefore, the foreast for period 11 is $1.80

Part 1B:

Given α = 0.1 and the forecast for november of $1.80, the actual value for november is $1.62

Thus, the forecast for period 12 is given by:

$F_{12}=\alpha
 A_{11}+(1-\alpha)F_{11} \\ \\ =0.1(1.62)+(1-0.1)(1.80) \\ \\ 
=0.162+0.9(1.80)=0.162+1.62 \\ \\ =1.782$

Therefore, the foreast for period 12 is $1.78

Part 2A:

Given α = 0.3 and the initial forecast for october of $1.76, the actual value for October is $1.57.

Thus, the forecast for period 11 is given by:

$F_{11}=\alpha
 A_{10}+(1-\alpha)F_{10} \\ \\ =0.3(1.57)+(1-0.3)(1.76) \\ \\ 
=0.471+0.7(1.76)=0.471+1.232 \\ \\ =1.703$

Therefore, the foreast for period 11 is $1.70


Part 2B:

Given α = 0.3 and the forecast for November of $1.70, the actual value for november is $1.62

Thus, the forecast for period 12 is given by:

$F_{12}=\alpha
 A_{11}+(1-\alpha)F_{11} \\ \\ =0.3(1.62)+(1-0.3)(1.70) \\ \\ 
=0.486+0.7(1.70)=0.486+1.19 \\ \\ =1.676$

Therefore, the foreast for period 12 is $1.68


Part 3A:

Given α = 0.5 and the initial forecast for october of $1.72, the actual value for October is $1.57.

Thus, the forecast for period 11 is given by:

$F_{11}=\alpha
 A_{10}+(1-\alpha)F_{10} \\ \\ =0.5(1.57)+(1-0.5)(1.72) \\ \\ 
=0.785+0.5(1.72)=0.785+0.86 \\ \\ =1.645$

Therefore, the forecast for period 11 is $1.65


Part 3B:

Given α = 0.5 and the forecast for November of $1.65, the actual value for November is $1.62

Thus, the forecast for period 12 is given by:

$F_{12}=\alpha
 A_{11}+(1-\alpha)F_{11} \\ \\ =0.5(1.62)+(1-0.5)(1.65) \\ \\ 
=0.81+0.5(1.65)=0.81+0.825 \\ \\ =1.635$

Therefore, the forecast for period 12 is $1.64

Part 4:

The mean absolute deviation of a forecast is given by the summation of the absolute values of the actual values minus the forecasted values all divided by the number of items.

Thus, given that the actual values of october, november and december are: $1.57, $1.62, $1.75

using α = 0.3, we obtained that the forcasted values of october, november and december are: $1.83, $1.80, $1.78

Thus, the mean absolute deviation is given by:

$\frac{|1.57-1.83|+|1.62-1.80|+|1.75-1.78|}{3} = \frac{|-0.26|+|-0.18|+|-0.03|}{3} \\ \\ = \frac{0.26+0.18+0.03}{3} = \frac{0.47}{3} \approx0.16$

Therefore, the mean absolute deviation using exponential smoothing where α = 0.1 of October, November and December is given by: 0.157

Part 5:

The mean absolute deviation of a forecast is given by the summation of the absolute values of the actual values minus the forecasted values all divided by the number of items.

Thus, given that the actual values of october, november and december are: $1.57, $1.62, $1.75

using α = 0.3, we obtained that the forcasted values of october, november and december are: $1.76, $1.70, $1.68

Thus, the mean absolute deviation is given by:

$
 \frac{|1.57-1.76|+|1.62-1.70|+|1.75-1.68|}{3} = 
\frac{|-0.17|+|-0.08|+|-0.07|}{3} \\ \\ = \frac{0.17+0.08+0.07}{3} = 
\frac{0.32}{3} \approx0.107$

Therefore, the mean absolute deviation using exponential smoothing where α = 0.3 of October, November and December is given by: 0.107


Part 6:

The mean absolute deviation of a forecast is given by the summation of the absolute values of the actual values minus the forecasted values all divided by the number of items.

Thus, given that the actual values of october, november and december are: $1.57, $1.62, $1.75

using α = 0.5, we obtained that the forcasted values of october, november and december are: $1.72, $1.65, $1.64

Thus, the mean absolute deviation is given by:

$
 \frac{|1.57-1.72|+|1.62-1.65|+|1.75-1.64|}{3} = 
\frac{|-0.15|+|-0.03|+|0.11|}{3} \\ \\ = \frac{0.15+0.03+0.11}{3} = 
\frac{29}{3} \approx0.097$

Therefore, the mean absolute deviation using exponential smoothing where α = 0.5 of October, November and December is given by: 0.097

5 0

3 years ago