Which heuristic involves forming predictions based on the ease with which a situation can be imagined?

1 answer:

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Anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic involves forming predictions based on the ease with which a situation can be imagined.

Any strategy for problem solving or self-discovery that uses a practical method that is not ensured to be optimal, perfect, or rational but is nevertheless sufficient for achieving an immediate, short-term goal or approximation is referred to as a heuristic. Heuristics can be viewed as generic cognitive frameworks that people frequently use to arrive at solutions rapidly.

A person uses the cognitive heuristic of "anchoring and adjustment," whereby they begin with a basic notion and then modify their views in light of this notion. When the original anchor deviates from the genuine value, it has been demonstrated that anchoring and adjustment would yield incorrect results.

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Assume labor and capital are the only two inputs. Digitopolis is a capital-abundant country that produces personal computers and

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Following the Ricardian Model of Comparative Advantage, both Digitopolis and the labor-abundant country will specialize at producing what each does best, according to its factors endowment.

This means that Digitopolis will shift its production to computers as it is a capital intensive activity and its opportunity cost for computers production is lower, while the second country, being labor-abundant, will specialize on producing fax machines.

Explanation:

The Ricardian Model of Comparative Advantage assumes that countries benefit from international trade as they will specialize in producing goods where they hold comparative advantage, that is, where their opportunity cost is lower. The opportunity cost describes the trade-off between choosing to produce one good or the other based on inputs availability and efficiency. In this case, capital is abundant in Digitopolis, so it is evident that the opportunity cost of shifting output to a capital-intensive industry (computers) will be less than producing labor-intensive goods (fax machines).

Being a capital-abundant country, for Digitopolis the opportunity cost of producing fax machines is higher than for producing computers, so it is less efficient for this country to focus on producing fax machines. Thus, it will be more productive that it specializes on producing computers.

On the other hand, considering that the second country is labor-abundant, it is better that it specializes on producing fax machines, as its opportunity cost here is lower.

Finally, both countries will benefit from trade, as overall production of computers and fax machines will increase. Digitopolis will produce much more computers and the second country more fax machines than in the pre-trade situation, because both countries will be employing their inputs more efficiently and productivity will increase.

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