Question

50% of population does not smoke, 20% are heavy smokers and 30% are light smokers. if heavy smokers are twice as likely to die as light smokers, and light smokers are twice as likely to die as non-smokers then what is the likelihood that if someone died they were a heavy smoker?

Answer 1

Based on the calculation below, the likelihood that if someone died they were a heavy smoker is 42.11%.

How do we calculate the likelihood of an occurrence?

Let:

Likelihood that a non-smoker will die = x

Therefore, we have:

Likelihood that a light smoker will die = 2 * x = 2x

Likelihood that a heavy smoker will die= 2 * 2x = 4x

From the above, we have:

Expected number of non smokers that will die = 50% * x = 0.5x

Expected number of light smokers that will die = 30% * 2x = 60%x = 0.6x

Expected number of heavy smokers that will die = 20% * 4x = 80%x = 0.8x

Total expected = 0.5x + 0.6x + 0.8x = 1.9x

Therefore, we have:

Likelihood that a heavy smoker died = Expected number of heavy smokers that will die / Total expected = 0.8x / 1.9x = 0.4211, or 42.11%

Learn more about likelihood here: brainly.com/question/14832179.

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