I do not think that Phil can predict the weather. First, he is only a groundhog. He does not have weather equipment or any tools that would give him knowledge of weather patterns. Second, Phil would not see his shadow on a cloudy day. Winter is usually the cloudiest and darkest of all seasons. If Phil does not see his shadow, it should indicate that spring is not coming early. Third, the groundhog that is called Phil is not the original groundhog used on the first Groundhog Day. The entire celebration is just a way for people to get excited about the coming of spring, it's not an actual forecasting tool.
I think that Phil can predict the weather. First, he is a groundhog. He is more aware of nature and the changes in the weather than people are. Second, he and the groundhogs that have come before him have always been used to predict whether or not spring will come. If he was not a reliable indicator, people would have stopped asking Phil to predict the weather many years ago. Last, when Phil does not see his shadow, that means the weather is cloudy. The clouds show that there is rain coming and spring is the rainy season.
