The South won every major Civil War battle until "<span>a. the Battle of Antietam," since this took place on Union soil for the first time during the War--giving the Union a "home town" advantage. </span>
The natural disaster is EARTHQUAKE.
On the 8th of October, 2005, the Kashmir region of India and some sections of Pakistan and Afghanistan was hit by an earthquake. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.6. The earthquake caused a lot of damages and a huge number of people lost their lives during the event, many more become homeless.
While you didn't provide us with any concrete answers, this relationship is something related to an alliance, but in reality isn't one because the smaller country is only doing this because they're afraid of repercusions.