Answer:
0.3821 = 38.21% probability that no less than 95 out of 152 registered voters will vote in the presidential election.
Step-by-step explanation:
Binomial probability distribution
Probability of exactly x sucesses on n repeated trials, with p probability.
Can be approximated to a normal distribution, using the expected value and the standard deviation.
The expected value of the binomial distribution is:
The standard deviation of the binomial distribution is:
Normal probability distribution
Problems of normally distributed distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.
In a set with mean and standard deviation
, the zscore of a measure X is given by:
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
When we are approximating a binomial distribution to a normal one, we have that ,
.
Assume the probability that a given registered voter will vote in the presidential election is 61%.
This means that
152 registed voters:
This means that
Mean and Standard deviation:
Probability that no less than 95 out of 152 registered voters will vote in the presidential election.
This is, using continuity correction, , which is 1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 94.5. So
has a pvalue of 0.6179
1 - 0.6179 = 0.3821
0.3821 = 38.21% probability that no less than 95 out of 152 registered voters will vote in the presidential election.
