Answer:
0.0182 = 1.82% probability that the proportion of vegetarians in a sample of 403 Americans would differ from the population proportion by more than 3%.
Step-by-step explanation:
To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.
Normal Probability Distribution
Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.
In a set with mean and standard deviation
, the z-score of a measure X is given by:
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem establishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean and standard deviation
, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean
and standard deviation
.
For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.
For a proportion p in a sample of size n, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion will be approximately normal with mean and standard deviation
A statistician calculates that 7% of Americans are vegetarians.
This means that
Sample of 403 Americans
This means that
Mean and standard deviation:
What is the probability that the proportion of vegetarians in a sample of 403 Americans would differ from the population proportion by more than 3%?
Proportion below 7 - 3 = 4% or above 7 + 3 = 10%. Since the normal distribution is symmetric, these probabilities are equal, which means that we find one of them, and multiply by 2.
Probability the proportion is below 4%
p-value of Z when X = 0.04.
By the Central Limit Theorem
has a p-value of 0.0091
2*0.0091 = 0.0182
0.0182 = 1.82% probability that the proportion of vegetarians in a sample of 403 Americans would differ from the population proportion by more than 3%.