Question

Pl lumber stock is expected to return 22 percent in a booming economy, 15 percent in a normal economy, and lose 2 percent in a recession. the probabilities of an economic boom, normal state, or recession are 5 percent, 92 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. what is the expected rate of return on this stock?

Answer 1

                    Expected rate of return           Probabilities
Booming                22%                                    5%
Normal                  15%                                   92%
Recession               2%                                     3%

The expected rate of return on this stock is solved by multiply each expected rate of return to its corresponding probability and getting the sum of all products.

Booming: 0.22 x 0.05 =  0.011
Normal:   0.15 x  0.92 = 0.138
Recession 0.02 x 0.03 = 0.0006
Sum total                     0.1496  or 14.96% is the expected rate of return on this stock