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Narendra ModiEconomic Survey 2019
In his address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that rapid population growth—described as a “population explosion"—posed a formidable challenge to our future. In his view, responsible citizens with small families, who contribute to their own welfare and to the good of the nation, should be seen as role models. And parents should think about their capacity to provide for education and healthcare before extending their families. Small families, the exhortation made clear, are in national interest. He suggested that governments, at the Centre and in states, should bring supportive schemes.
This world-view is reminiscent of a belief system that dominated thinking 50 years ago. Family planning was the buzzword. Governments provided proactive support. The Emergency culminated in the compulsory sterilization programme, which led to widespread resistance and resentment among people. The problem was that such thinking did not recognize the economic or demographic factors underlying rapid population growth. Since then, the thinking has changed. So have India, and the world. Hence, it is important to understand the population issue in a new context.
The traditional belief that India will remain poor because its population is growing too rapidly is based on a simple logic of arithmetic. The larger the population, as a denominator, the smaller is the per capita availability of everything. In other words, the economy would have to run to standstill. This reasoning does not recognize that India’s population might be growing too rapidly because it is poor. For the poor, children are a source of supplementing family income when parents are young, and of financial support in old age. High infant mortality rates only strengthen the motivation for more children.
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