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avanturin [10]
3 years ago
14

Es fiable y eficaz el pronostico del tiempo?

Biology
1 answer:
sdas [7]3 years ago
4 0

Responder: Un pronóstico de siete días puede predecir con precisión el clima alrededor del 80 por ciento del tiempo y un pronóstico de cinco días puede predecir con precisión el clima aproximadamente el 90 por ciento del tiempo. Dado que no podemos recopilar datos del futuro, los modelos tienen que usar estimaciones y suposiciones para predecir el clima futuro.

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1) you're going to have to flip the coins (or fake numbers) for the experimental trials.

2) for the theoretical, there is 1/2 chance for heads or tails with each toss, so you'd expect that out of 10 tosses, 5 heads, 5 tails. out of 100 tosses- 50 heads, 50 tails.

When tossing 2 coins- 1/2×1/2 = 1/4 (25%) chance that 2 heads, 2 tails, or 1 heads & 1 tails. Deviation value comes from after you done your flipping and recorded your data. So if on 100 flips you actually got 50 and 50 (rarely us that exact ;), the deviation from the expected of 50/50 would be 0.00. If however you flipped 100 heads or 100 tails (impossible), then the deviation value would be 1.00.

|(100-50)| ÷ 50 = 50÷50 = 1.00

So usually you may have data like: 47/53 or something a little off than 50/50, making deviation |(47-50)| ÷ 50 = 3÷50 = 0.06.

Now the number of flips is important for the outcome! So if a coin toss if 10 times had 4 heads, 6 tails, the deviation value would be:

|(4-5)| ÷ 5 = 1÷5 = 0.20

So increasing the # flips DECREASES the deviation value!!

Whether it's from 10 to 100, or from 100 to 200. Look at my example of how the 10-flip deviation of 0.20 decreased to 0.06 with 100-flip

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