Question

The following table shows a tool and die company's quarterly sales for the current year. What are sales for the first quarter of next year? Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 Sales 88 99 108 141.4 Seasonal Relatives 1.1 0.99 0.9 1.01 Deseasonalized 80 100 120 140 Trend 1. Deseasonalize 2. Naïve forecast of trend 3. Reseasonalize

Answer 1

Answer:

Quarter 1, Sales 88. seasonal relatives 1.1

Deseasonalized = 88 / 1.1 = 80

Quarter 2, Sales 99. seasonal relatives 0.99

Deseasonalized = 99 / 0.99 = 100

Trend = 80+(100-80) = 100

Reseasonalized  = 100*0.99 = 99

Quarter 3, Sales 108, seasonal relatives 0.9

Deseasonalized = 108 / 0.9 = 120

Trend = 1000+ (120-100) = 120

Reseasonalized  = 1120*0.9 = 108

Quarter 4, Sales 141.4, seasonal relatives 1.01

Deseasonalized = 141.1 / 1.01 = 140

Trend = 120+ (140-120) = 140

Reseasonalized  = 140*1.01 = 141.4

Now to get the Naive trend forecast for the next year first quarter, we say

140 + (140 - 120) = 160

Also to get the Re-seasonalized forecast for the next year first quarter, we say

160*1.1 = 176