A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted:

Question

3 years ago

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A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted:

FORECAST ACTUAL April 244 344 May 318 468 June 393 493 July 343 293 August 368 268 September 443 568 a. Find the tracking signal for each month.

Business

1 answer:

Alla [95] · Answer 1 · 2022-12-09T22:25:03+03:00

Answer:

MONTH TRACKING SIGNAL

April 1

May 2

June 3

July 3

August 2

September 3

Explanation:

Given the data in the question;

A B C D E F G

Month Forecast Actual Error |Error| RSFE MAD

cumulative

C-D |C-D| of D

April 244 344 100 100 100 100.00

May 318 468 150 150 250 125.00

June 393 493 100 100 350 116.67

July 343 293 -50 50 300 100.00

August 368 268 -100 100 200 100.00

September 443 568 125 125 325 104.17

the tracking signal for each month will be;

Tracking Signal =

Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE) / Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

so substitute

Month of APRIL;

Tracking signal = 100 / 100.00 = 1

Month of MAY;

Tracking signal = 250 / 125.00 = 2

Month of JUNE;

Tracking signal = 350 / 116.67 = 2.9999 ≈ 3

Month of JULY;

Tracking signal = 300 / 100.00 = 3

Month of AUGUST;

Tracking signal = 200 / 100 = 2

Month of SEPTEMBER;

Tracking signal = 325 / 104.17 = 3.11 ≈ 3

Therefore,