Answer:When comparing population trends of Japan and Germany, numerous similarities stand out. Both countries have an identical total fertility rate (TFR) per woman of 1.4 with a population growth rate of -0.2 percent (Table 1). While both countries have high life expectancies, Japan’s eighty-five-year life expectancy is among the world’s longest, leading to a higher elderly dependency ratio in 2017 (Table 1). Similarities between the countries related to below-replacement-rate population growth, aging-related pension and health care challenges, and pronatal policies place the countries on a similar population trajectory. When analyzing historical, economic, and social/cultural factors behind demographic similarities, different paths toward population decline emerge. Additionally, the countries vary in their views of international migration as a population stimulus. The analysis provides classroom activities that directly align with the College Board AP Human Geography course description. The comparison and suggested classroom activities could also augment any course addressing current demographic issues at the high school or undergraduate levels.
GERMANY
In 2005, Germany’s population began to decline by 0.1 to 0.2 percent annually. With a TFR between 1.3 and 1.4 children per woman from 2005 to 2017, the country is significantly below replacement rate fertility of 2.1 children per woman. Like other developed countries, Germany saw a postwar baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s with a peak TFR of 2.66 from 1960 to 1965. The rate continued to decline during the 1970s through 1990s and became fixed in the early 2000s.1 Coinciding with a declining TFR, life expectancy has increased as health care advances and food security demonstrate Germany’s steady economic development. German population decline has prompted concerns related to elderly care, as well as promoted family policy geared toward increasing birth rates. International migration has also played a role in offsetting population decline in Germany.
CONCERNS, RELATED TO THE SOCIAL SYSTEM
Unlike Japan, Germany has demonstrated consistent economic growth in the wake of declining fertility rates. Germany has witnessed steady gains in gross domestic product (GDP) over the last forty years while also seeing declining fertility rates. Current government concerns related to population decline focus on increasing costs of elderly care and social security pensions. Germany has an extensive care system for the elderly, which includes state-funded long-term care. The system operates on a pay-as-yougo funding structure. So as the percentage of elderly increases in Germany, the burden on the tax structure is greater. Germany’s aging population has even forced government efforts at subsidizing family care of the elderly.2 Germany’s elderly dependency ratio of 32.2 percent (Table 1) indicates that the financial challenge of caring for the elderly will persist in the wake of declining birth rates.
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