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Record of june temperature of last 50 years
Probability of June temperature being above 80° F from last 50 years
It means , out of 30 days ,there are only 20 days , in which temperature is above 80°F.
⇒Probability that it will be above 80° F for 20 or more days this June
where, x is the number of extra days after 20 days in month of june, when temperature is above 80°F.
Value of this Probability will be in between
Now, what Azul wants
To find the probability that it will be above 80° F for 20 or more days this June.
The Simulation given is
⇒There are 30 days in June. If we use a number cube with the numbers 1-6 and assign 1-4 as a temperature above 80° F and 5-6 as a temperature 80° F or below.
Total number of numbers on number cube ={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Favorable Outcome={1,2,3,4}=Temperature above 80° F
Temperature 80° F or below ={5,6}
⇒Probability of getting number {1,2,3,4} on the number cube when rolled once,that is Temperature above 80° F
⇒Probability of getting number {5,6} on the number cube when rolled once, that is Temperature 80° F or below
This is Incorrect Simulation, as there are chances that , there can be more than 20 days out of 30 days when Temperature goes above 80° F.But Here we have got Probability of temperature being above 80° F for 20 days only, not more than 20 days, which is
Not,a number
.