It is well known that steroid usage is banned in athletes. As a result, athletes are randomly tested. The steroid test procedure
s are believed to be equally effective on both steroid users as well as non-steroid users. The effective rate is 98%. Assume 90% of the athletes are clean (not steroid users). Suppose an athlete is tested as a steroid user (and thus could be disqualified from the Summer Olympics games), what is the probability that the athlete is actually clean (i.e., not a steroid user)
18% that the athlete is disqualified but is actually clean
Step-by-step explanation:
In order to find the probability of two events happening together, in this case the athlete being disqualified and being clean, we need to multiply the probabilities. So,
It is a 90% chance that the athlete is clean and a 2% chance that the test fails so multiply the two
.9 * .2 = .18
This means that it is an 18% chance that the athlete is clean but is still disqualified.
