Question

In the challenging world of retail sales, Macy's, Inc.'s (M's) revenues are declining while expenses are generally flat. Based on recent conversations with management at Macy's, analysts believe that dividends will decline at a rate of 7% perpetually. The firm just paid a dividend of $5.10 per share and the required return on the stock is 3%
a) At what price should a share of M stock sell today? (2 pts.)
b) Calculate what the stock should sell for 8 years from now. 12 pts.)
c) Briefly explain, perhaps with the aid of a single calculation, why an investor would still be interested in buying the stock today even though the stock price is predicted to fall acrosats time. (2 pts.)

Answer 1

Answer

a) Gordon's Constant Growth model : P0 = D1 / (r-g)

r = 3% =0.03 , g= -7% = -0.07 , D0 = $5.1

D1 = D0*(1+g)

D1 = 5.1*(1-0.07)

D1 = $4.743

P0 = 4.743/(0.03- (-0.07))

P0 = 4.743/0.10

P0 = $47.43

So, Stock M should sell at a price of $47.43 today

b) Price 8 years from now

==> P8 = D9/(r-g)

P8 = D0*(1+g)^9/(r-g)

P8 = 5.1* (1-0.07)^9 / (0.03- (-0.07))

P8 = 5.1*0.52041108298  / (0.03- (-0.07))

P8 = 2.65410

P8 = $26.54

c) Investor may want to buy the stock today for the Dividends. If the dividends paid are high enough, the present value of the dividends is also high and may more than compensate the fall in stock price. This type of stocks work and give cash flows like a project where the initial cashflows are higher and later cashflows are less because of market factors.