Question

You are thinking about the things that can go wrong on your trip home over the Thanksgiving break. You have booked a flight with US-Scareways. You know that in 35 percent of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on. Should such a thing occur, there would be no other air travel option home for you. As a backup, your friend Walter has offered you a ride back. However, you know that Walter only has a seat in his car for you with 70 percent probability.
What is the probability of you making it home for the holidays?

Answer 1

Answer: 89.5% or 0.895

Explanation:

Probability of you making it home if the flight is canceled:

= Probability that flight is canceled * probability that Walter has a seat

= 35% * 70%

= 24.5%

Probability of you making it home by flight:

= 100% - 35%

= 65%

Probability of you making it home for the holidays:

= Prob. if flight is canceled + Prob. by flight

= 24.5% + 65%

= 89.5%