Answer: Maybe.
Explanation:
While impeachment alone would not impact a President’s future ability to serve in office -- impeachment is the equivalent of an indictment, not a guilty verdict -- a conviction would mean that decision falls squarely into the hands of the U.S. Senate, according to the U.S. Constitution.
The Senate will hold the trial, and if the result is a conviction, the Senate can vote to simply remove the president from office. Or, it can vote to disqualify the president from ever holding public office again.
"The Senate has the right to run the trial as they see fit,'' said Brian Browne, assistant vice president of government relations at St. John’s University and an adjunct professor of political science. “It’s written in the Constitution.”
Regarding impeachment, Article I, Section 3, Clause 7 of the Constitution says:
“Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States.”
But the Senate, even if voting to remove the president from office, may choose not to prohibit him from returning to office in the future, Browne said.
That was the case with the articles of impeachment approved by the House Judiciary Committee against President Richard Nixon in 1974, which said only that Nixon “warrants impeachment and trial, and removal from office.” They were made moot by Nixon’s ultimate resignation.
On Tuesday, House Democrats introduced two articles of impeachment against Trump alleging abuse of power and obstruction of Congress regarding his interactions with Ukraine. And that resolution does specify that the president "does warrant impeachment, trial, removal from office and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States.''
But, in the end, the Senate can vote against that recommendation, after the House votes on a House Judiciary Committee resolution, following a trial.
For removal from office to occur, a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required -- that means 67 Senate members must vote to convict Trump of the high crimes and remove him from office. There are currently 53 Republicans in the Senate, 45 Democrats and two Independents.
In our nation’s history, only two presidents have been impeached -- Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton -- but neither was removed from office. Both were later acquitted by the Senate.
Nixon resigned from office before the House could vote on his impeachment resolutions, but it is believed he would have been removed from office, because of his role in the Watergate scandal, had he not resigned.
And though Nixon’s articles of impeachment didn’t prohibit him from ever holding office again, that wasn’t the case with Clinton, whose resolution did just that.
Browne pointed to Johnson, who was impeached in the House but acquitted in the Senate and later was elected to serve in the Senate after finishing his term as president of the United States. And Alcee Hastings, a current member of the House from Florida, was removed as a federal judge in 1989, but was later elected to serve in Congress, Browne said.
So, it can happen.
Browne said he thinks it’s unlikely that Trump will be removed from office at all, given the Republican majority in the Senate. Removal with the disqualification of ever running again is even more unlikely, but possible, he said.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will have a lot of control, and John Roberts, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, will preside, Browne said.
"The jury really is the U.S. Senate,'' he said. "The removal part is where the Senate comes in. I just don’t see 20-plus Republicans doing that on the eve of an election.''
But, if removed, is it possible for Trump to run and be re-elected?
"The short answer is kinda, sorta, maybe,'' Browne said.
