There's no perfect answer to this question (even the question acknowledges this problem). In my opinion, the U.S. was put on a path to Civil War the very moment the U.S. Constitution was signed. The Constitution brought a bunch of colonies into a union together, even though some of those colonies relied heavily on slavery and believed that slavery was morally defensible, while others did not rely on slavery and believed that slavery was a terrible thing. It was only a matter of time before the debate over slavery turned into a violent clash over slavery.
The Federalists were opposed to the War of 1812 because it would interfere with British trade relations. The Federalists considered England to be a great commercial ally, and since the Federalists were quite in favor of staying wealthy, they didn't want to risk ruining their connections.
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