Question

The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows:
Procurement
Cost ($) Probability Labor Cost ($) Probability Transportation
Cost ($) Probability
10 0.25 20 0.1 3 0.75
11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25
12 0.3 24 0.35 25 0.3 (a) Compute profit per unit for base-case, worst-case, and best-case.
Profit per unit for base-case: $
Profit per unit for worst-case: $
Profit per unit for best-case:$
(b) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit.
If required, round your answer to the nearest cent.
Mean profit per unit =
(c) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
(d) Management believes that the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5.
If required, round your answer to a one decimal digit percentage.

Answer 1

The calculated profit per unit for base-case, worst-case is, and best-case for the management of Brinkley corporation is:

• $7
• $3 per unit
• $3 per unit

The Profit per unit for base-case:

45 - 1 1- 24 - 3 = $7

Profit per unit for worst case:

45 - 12 - 25 - 3 = $3 per unit

Profit per unit for best case:

45 - 10 - 20 - 3 = 12$ per unit

b. The mean profit per unit is given as $7.05

c. The reason the simulation approach is preferable is due to the fact that it can help to determine the probability of profit as a particular amount, unlike the what-if scenario analysis.

It can also create different scenarios for possible resources.

d. The probability of the fact that the profit per unit woul  be less than 5 is 9%

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