Technology and the Changing Earth: Tutorial
2 answers:
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Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and prediction. The development of new technologies provides the motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar system and identifying the most promising approaches for the development of its eventual replacement.
The charge to the committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the current weather radar system. The need, and schedule, for replacing the current system has not been established, but the committee used the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and research communities and identified potential system upgrades for providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost structures associated with any new weather radar system. The committee instead noted technologies that could provide improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations, the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could be as significant as the specific technologies adopted. Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with such procedural issues.
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Answer:
a,Answer: Type I right censoring, censoring time = 60.
b.This is called an Interval censoring,
c.this is called Random censoring because the year in consideration was chosen at random, censoring time = 61.
d.The observations are left truncated respectively at age 30, 40, 50 and 42.
e.
Explanation:
a) A healthy individual, enrolled in the study at age 30, never developed
breast cancer during the study.
Answer: Type I censoring, censoring time = 60.
(b) A healthy individual, enrolled in the study at age 40, was diagnosed
with breast cancer at the fifth exam after enrollment (i.e., the disease
started sometime between 12 and 15 years after enrollment).
THis is called an Interval censoring,
if the clinical exams is conducted every three years , then 3*4=12, and 3*5=15
add this to 40 years respectively, we have
censoring time = (52, 55]
c) A healthy individual, enrolled in the study at age 50, died from a
cause unrelated to the disease (i.e., not diagnosed with breast cancer
at any time during the study) at age 61.
this is called Random censoring because the year in consideration was chosen at random, censoring time = 61.
(d) An individual, enrolled in the study at age 42, moved away from
the community at age 55 and was never diagnosed with breast cancer
during the period of observation.
Random censoring, censoring time = 55.
The observations are left truncated respectively at age 30, 40, 50 and 42.
e. Confining your attention to the four individuals described above,
write down the likelihood for this portion of the study.
the above represent the likelihood