Answer:
21.21%
Step-by-step explanation:
Assume that proportion of support follows normal distribution.For resulting in defeat the proportion of support should less than 0.5.Given that the proportion of support is p= 0.52.
Sample size(n)= 402
We know that standard deviation is given as
Now by putting the values
σ=0.0249
Proportion of support follows normal distribution with mean is 0.52 and standard deviation is 0.0249
We know that
So
Z= -0.80
So P(Z<-.80) =0.2118 from standard table.
So the probability of news paper to predict defeat is 21.21%