Question

A company is deciding if it should design an advertising system for use on Twitter©. The first option is to skip out on designing, with no net costs or gains. The second option is System A, which would result in additional sales of either $50,000 under good conditions or $10,000 under bad conditions. The final choice is System B, which would increase sales by $20,000 under both good and bad conditions. Suppose that good conditions are twice as likely as bad conditions. Which option should the company pursue if developing a system costs $25,000?

Answer 1

Answer:

SYSTEM A

Explanation:

Given the following :

First option :

Skip design = No net gain or loss

System A:

Additional sales of $50,000 under good condition

Additional sales of $10,000 under bad condition

System B:

Increase sale by $20,000 under both good and bad condition

Cost of system development = $25,000

Good condition are twice as likely to occur as bad condition

Hence, we have : good, good, bad

Probability of good = 2/3 = 0.667

Probability of bad = 1/3 = 0.333

We can calculate the Expected monetary Value of the three options :

First option:

Skip design : Expected monetary Value = $0

Second option (SYSTEM A) :

Profit from good condition :

Additional sales - system cost = ($50,000 - $25,000) =$25, 000

Loss from bad condition :

($25,000 - $10,000) = - $15,000

Expected monetary value:

(0.667 * 25000) + (0.33 * - 15000)

$16675 - $4950

= $11,680

Third option (SYSTEM B) :

Additional sales - system cost

$20,000 - $25,000 = - $5,000

From the expected monetary value obtained for the three options, System A is the best option with $11,680