Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability. The incidence of a certain disease on the island of Tukow is 4%. A new test h
as been developed to diagnose the disease. Using this test, 91% of those who have the disease test positive while 4% of those who do not have the disease test positive (false positive). If a person tests positive, what is the probability that he or she actually has the disease?
<span>D - has disease </span> <span>H - healthy (does not have disease) </span> <span>P - tests positive </span>
<span>It is the probability that a person has the disease AND tests positive divided by the probability that the person tests positive. </span> Sick, + [.04*.91] = .0364