Suppose an opinion poll predicted that, if the election were held today, the Conservative party would win 68% of the vote. If th

Question

4 years ago

12

e pollster attached a 95% confidence level to the interval 68% plus or minus 4%, what would that mean?

2 answers:

Dmitry [639] · Answer 1 · 2021-12-07T05:05:53+03:00

6 0

<span>That there is a 95% chance that the Conservative party will win between 64% and 72% of the vote.</span>

Finger [1] · Answer 2 · 2021-12-07T06:58:13+03:00

The <em>correct answer</em> is:

We can be 95% confident that the true proportion of votes for the Conservative property will fall within 4 points of 68%, or the interval 64% - 72%.

Explanation:

The confidence level (95%) tells us the chance that our interval contains the true proportion.

The margin of error (4%) gives us the interval above and below the mean percentage given.