Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next three years that w
ill disrupt all suppliers as 2%. In addition, the firm currently uses four suppliers for its main component, and the manager estimates the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next three years to be 20%. Supplier management costs during this period are $50,000 per supplier. The financial cost incurred if all four suppliers are disrupted at the same time is estimated to be $10,000,000. What is the expected monetary value (i.e., cost) of the current supplier diversification arrangement? Show the results by drawing the decision tree in POM-QM.
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Answer:
Note: <em>The complete question is attached as picture below</em>
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We are add the previous month +10% to get that month's amounts
Sales Budget
January February March
Cash sales $50,000 <u>$55,000</u> <u>$60,500</u>
Credit sales $120,000 <u>$132,000</u> <u>$145,200</u>
Total sales $170,000 <u>$187,000</u> <u>$205,700</u>
<u>Workings</u>:
February
Cash sales = 50,000+(50,000*10%) = $55,000
Credit sales= 120,000+(120,000*10%) = $132,000
March
Cash sales = 55,000+(55,000*10%) = $60,500
Credit sales= 132,000+(132,000*10%) = $145,200
