Question

It is the morning of the sandcastle-building competition at the beach. Dory has been looking forward to this event for months. According to her weather app, there is an 80% probability of high winds in her area today. Which of the following BEST describes the MOST likely way the probability was determined?

Answer 1

One way is by comparing the weather for today as compared to the rest of the week or month.

Answer 2

Answer:

B) Historically, in this area, high winds occur 80% of the time on days with similar meteorological conditions as today.

Explanation:

Meteorologists calculate the probability of certain weather conditions by dividing specific outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. For example, to find out the probability of raining on a certain date, meteorologists use a large database which contains information about how many times it rained when the meteorological conditions were similar. If historically it rained during 5,000 days out of 8,000 total days that had a similar meteorological condition, then the probability of rain will be 5,000 / 8,000 = 62.5%