Question

Assume there are only three possible states of nature for the economy in the future: boom, normal, and recession. If there is a 25% chance of a recession and a 30% chance of a boom, then what is the probability of a normal economy in the future?a. 45%b. 30%c. 25%d. 100%

Answer 1

Answer:

a. 45%

Explanation:

The sum of total probabilities  is always equal to 1. Since in the given question only three probabilities are given, so the sum of these three probabilities shall be 1 which is represented as follows by the equation:

probability of boom+probability of normal+probability of recession=1

In the given question:

probability of boom=30%

probability of recession=25%

30%+probability of normal+25%=1

Probability of normal=1-25%-30%=45%

So based on the above calculations, the answer shall be a. 45%