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irina [24]
3 years ago
15

Probabilities with possible states of nature: s1, s2, and s3. Suppose that you are given a decision situation with three possibl

e state of nature: s1, s2, and s3.The prior probabilities are P(s1) =.1, P(s2) = .6, and P(s3) = .3.With sample information I, P(I|s1) =.15, P(I|s2) = .2, and P(I|s3) = .1.Compute P(s1|I)Compute P(s2|I)Compute P(s3|I)
Mathematics
1 answer:
amm18123 years ago
4 0

Answer:

1. P(s_1|I)=\frac{1}{11}

2. P(s_2|I)=\frac{8}{11}

3. P(s_3|I)=\frac{2}{11}

Step-by-step explanation:

Given information:

P(s_1)=0.1, P(s_2)=0.6, P(s_3)=0.3

P(I|s_1)=0.15,P(I|s_2)=0.2,P(I|s_3)=0.1

(1)

We need to find the value of P(s₁|I).

P(s_1|I)=\frac{P(I|s_1)P(s_1)}{P(I|s_1)P(s_1)+P(I|s_2)P(s_2)+P(I|s_3)P(s_3)}

P(s_1|I)=\frac{(0.15)(0.1)}{(0.15)(0.1)+(0.2)(0.6)+(0.1)(0.3)}

P(s_1|I)=\frac{0.015}{0.015+0.12+0.03}

P(s_1|I)=\frac{0.015}{0.165}

P(s_1|I)=\frac{1}{11}

Therefore the value of P(s₁|I) is \frac{1}{11}.

(2)

We need to find the value of P(s₂|I).

P(s_2|I)=\frac{P(I|s_2)P(s_2)}{P(I|s_1)P(s_1)+P(I|s_2)P(s_2)+P(I|s_3)P(s_3)}

P(s_2|I)=\frac{(0.2)(0.6)}{(0.15)(0.1)+(0.2)(0.6)+(0.1)(0.3)}

P(s_2|I)=\frac{0.12}{0.015+0.12+0.03}

P(s_2|I)=\frac{0.12}{0.165}

P(s_2|I)=\frac{8}{11}

Therefore the value of P(s₂|I) is \frac{8}{11}.

(3)

We need to find the value of P(s₃|I).

P(s_3|I)=\frac{P(I|s_3)P(s_3)}{P(I|s_1)P(s_1)+P(I|s_2)P(s_2)+P(I|s_3)P(s_3)}

P(s_3|I)=\frac{(0.1)(0.3)}{(0.15)(0.1)+(0.2)(0.6)+(0.1)(0.3)}

P(s_3|I)=\frac{0.03}{0.015+0.12+0.03}

P(s_3|I)=\frac{0.03}{0.165}

P(s_3|I)=\frac{2}{11}

Therefore the value of P(s₃|I) is \frac{2}{11}.

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