Question

Suppose one economist believes the target rate of unemployment is 4.5 percent while another believes it is 5.5 percent. Using Okun’s rule of thumb, by how much would you expect their estimates of potential GDP to differ in a $10 trillion economy?

Answer 1

Answer:

$200 billion

Explanation:

Okun's law (or rule of thumb) states that for every 1% point drop in unemployment, the total output of the economy will increase by two percent.

In this case, since unemployment varies by 1% (= 5.5% - 4.5%), that would mean that the potential GDP differs in $200 billion (= $10 trillion x 2%) depending on which economist's unemployment estimation we use.