Answer:
There is a 44.12% probability that the defective product came from C.
Step-by-step explanation:
This can be formulated as the following problem:
What is the probability of B happening, knowing that A has happened.
It can be calculated by the following formula
![P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BP%28B%29.P%28A%2FB%29%7D%7BP%28A%29%7D)
Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.
-In your problem, we have:
P(A) is the probability of the customer receiving a defective product. For this probability, we have:
![P(A) = P_{1} + P_{2} + P_{3}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%20%3D%20P_%7B1%7D%20%2B%20P_%7B2%7D%20%2B%20P_%7B3%7D)
In which
is the probability that the defective product was chosen from plant A(we have to consider the probability of plant A being chosen). So:
![P_{1} = 0.35*0.25 = 0.0875](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P_%7B1%7D%20%3D%200.35%2A0.25%20%3D%200.0875)
is the probability that the defective product was chosen from plant B(we have to consider the probability of plant B being chosen). So:
![P_{2} = 0.15*0.05 = 0.0075](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P_%7B2%7D%20%3D%200.15%2A0.05%20%3D%200.0075)
is the probability that the defective product was chosen from plant B(we have to consider the probability of plant B being chosen). So:
![P_{3} = 0.50*0.15 = 0.075](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P_%7B3%7D%20%3D%200.50%2A0.15%20%3D%200.075)
So
![P(A) = 0.0875 + 0.0075 + 0.075 = 0.17](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%20%3D%200.0875%20%2B%200.0075%20%2B%200.075%20%3D%200.17)
P(B) is the probability the product chosen being C, that is 50% = 0.5.
P(A/B) is the probability of the product being defective, knowing that the plant chosen was C. So P(A/B) = 0.15.
So, the probability that the defective piece came from C is:
![P = \frac{0.5*0.15}{0.17} = 0.4412](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7B0.5%2A0.15%7D%7B0.17%7D%20%3D%200.4412)
There is a 44.12% probability that the defective product came from C.