If you throw a ball at a rectangular board that is 4 ft. by 5 ft. with a smaller 2 ft. by 2 ft. square painted in the center of
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The event that either M1 or M2 fails has probability
by the addition rule. Failure events are independent, so
so that
Denote this probability by . Then
follows a geometric distribution with this parameter
and has density
The expectation is .