Answer:
In mid-July, Texas Governor John Connally had made private polls suggesting that Johnson would lose Arkansas, as well as the hopeless Deep South states of Mississippi and Alabama.[5] Nonetheless, that the increase in black registration in the Natural State had exceeded Kennedy's margin in 1960 suggested that Johnson's civil rights legislation did have some potential to help him,[5] and in early August polls suddenly became confident Johnson would carry the state due to Goldwater's policies of privatizing Social Security and expanding the war in Southeast Asia – a policy that did not play well in this isolationist state.[6] By October, a New York Times poll saw Arkansas as "safe" for Johnson[7] and his leads in polls increased as election day came closer.[8]
Ultimately, Johnson comfortably carried Arkansas, becoming the twenty-third and last consecutive Democratic presidential nominee to win the state; however, anti-civil rights feeling did cause Arkansas to vote 9.92 percentage points more Republican than the nation at-large – this being the first time in 96 years when it had voted less Democratic than the nation.
Johnson doubled Kennedy's margin, and reclaimed the counties of Clay, Craighead, Fulton, Marion, Randolph and Sharp, which in 1960 had defected to the GOP for the first time ever or since Reconstruction as a result of powerful anti-Catholicism.[9] Johnson also claimed thirteen other Ozark counties which had supported Nixon in 1960.
However, in the Delta and south of the state sufficient backlash against black civil rights occurred for Goldwater to claim six counties in those regions from the Democrats.[10] Of these, only state namesake Arkansas County had ever been carried by a Republican since the McKinley era.[a] Ashley County and Drew County voted Republican for the first time since James G. Blaine in 1884,[11] Union County for the first time since Reconstruction, while Goldwater was the first Republican to ever carry Columbia and Howard Counties.[10]
Explanation:
