Question

You ask your subordinates how long it will take to complete the job they are working on. the subordinates say, "if everything goes right it will take 6 hours, most likely it will take 8 hours, and if everything goes wrong it will take until the end of tomorrow or another 16 hours." since this job is a part of a larger project you must estimate the expected time it will take to complete the job. using the three activity time estimation procedure for cpm, what is the expected time for this job?

Answer 1

Answer: 8 hours

Using only three activity time estimations, the expected time for this job can be estimated using a mean or a median. If we use the mean, we add 3 estimates ((6,8 and (16+8)) and divide the sum by 3 (equals 13). If we use the median, expected time is 8 hours. In this case, where have extreme estimates, it is better to use the median, the number halfway in to the set which is 8.