Question

Remember your friend from the Module 1 - Assignment: The Chance Model Example? Well, he now claims that he has developed a method to score a 70% or better on a multiple-choice exam even if he has no knowledge of the subject matter. He stipulates that the test has to consist of exactly 20 multiple choice questions with four answer choices for each question. Your friend agreed to take such an exam to prove his claim and obtained a score of 70%. Are you convinced that your friend’s method actually does work as claimed?

Answer 1

Answer:

The Chance Model

I am not convinced that my friend's method actually works as she claims.  Taking one exam to prove that her claim works is not significant enough.  My friend needs to take more tests.  If a sample of tests yields similar results on the average, I will then be convinced.  Otherwise, what has just happened is simply a question of chance.

Explanation:

The statistical significance of one test is not large enough for any decision maker to reject or fail to reject my friend's hypothesis or claim.  More sample tests need to be taken such that my friend will score 70% or more in the tests to make her claim convincing.