Question

" The high cost of implementing changes to infrastructure always raises questions about priorities. Should investments in infrastructure be made to address high-impact, low-probability events (such as human-error-caused accidents) or should investments be focused on low-impact, high-probability events (such as the need for cleaning and maintenance of train stations and installing air conditioning)

Answer 1

Answer:

We have important invents that are important to make infrastructure investment based on impact and probability.

Explanation:

WHICH EVENTS ARE IMPORTANT TO MAKE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS BASED ON IMPACT AND PROBABILITY?

The low probability and high impact events are very rare and it is is very difficult to ascertain the probability of its occurrence as either there is lack of historical data or it is very minimal.

But the consequences of such events can be very largely damaging even on one single instance of occurrence. For example, a collision between two trains due to human error in signalling can have disastrous repercussions and lead to loss of precious human life and property. One such instance is capable of incurring a huge damage on infrastructure which might prove very difficult to recover from.

So even though we do not know if this low probability and high impact event will occur, we have to take precautionary measures by developing infrastructure to make it capable of avoiding such human failures by mitigating the risk by the use of advance technology.

On the other hand, the low impact high probability events can also not be ignored as a number of of low impact and minor risks may aggregate together to form a significant risk.

For example the lack of regular cleaning and maintenance at the train stations main lead to damage of hard structural infrastructure like steel and alloys over a period of time. And if such infrastructure fails to serve the expected lifetime due to damages caused by lack of maintenance, the train company will probably go bankrupt with the burden of replacing large infrastructure.

Even something as trivial as lack of air conditioning may lead to big challenges as the overall aggregated impact of overheating might cause significant damage to machinery and structures.

Therefore, we need to have a very balanced approach while addressing both categories of events : the low impact high probability events and the high impact low probability events.

While addressing the high impact low probability events should be done at the earliest, a proper plan should be devised to address the high probability low impact events based on a schedule such that their aggregate impact does not become significant