Question

Bill's tendency to consider evidence that supports his position on illegal immigration, but disregards evidence that refutes his beliefs.
b. carol and her team have been working on a new product for several years and one expensive prototype has become their main focus. when evaluating the choices for launch, the group judges the top prototype as the best one for launch over less expensive options.
c. joe makes a stock price prediction and believes that there is only a 5% chance that his estimate is wrong; overlooking recent articles about the bad financial health of the business.
d. a judge in a criminal court hears over 80 cases a day. the defendants whose cases are heard late in the day were given harsher sentences.

Answer 1

an example of overconfidence would be:  Joe makes a stock price prediction and believes that there is only a 5% chance that his estimate is wrong; overlooking recent articles about the bad financial health of the business.

Buying stocks without any prior knowledge in finance would provide people with 50% rate of success. Good stock traders usually could improve their success rate up to 70% while success rate of 95% is very unlikely. Especially if the financial information showed a bad sign. The fact that Bill still put his money on the company's stock indicates that he is overconfident.