Question

Jay Seago is suing the manufacturer of his car for $3.5 million because of a defect that he believes caused him to have an accident. The accident kept him out of work for a year. The company has offered him a settlement of $700,000, of which Jay would receive $600,000 after attorneys’ fees. His attorney has advised him that he has a 50% chance of winning his case. If he loses, he will incur attorneys’ fees and court costs of $75,000. If he wins, he is not guaranteed his full requested settlement. His attorney believes that there is a 50% chance he could receive the full settlement, in which case Jay would realize $2 million after his attorney takes her cut, and a 50% chance that the jury will award him a lesser amount of $1 million, of which Jay would get $500,000. Using decision tree analysis, decide whether Jay should proceed with his lawsuit against the manufacturer.

Answer 1

Answer:

Since the expected value is higher for not suing ($600,000), then Jay should not sue. The expected value of the best case scenario in case of suing is only $500,000 and in the expected value of the worst case scenario is -$37,500.

Explanation:

he decides to not sue = expected value $600,000

he decides to sue:

50% chance of winning

expected value

• $2,000,000 x 50% x 50% = $500,000
• $500,000 x 50% x 50%  = $125,000

50% chance of losing

• expected value = -$75,000 x 50% = -$37,500