Answer:
-28.1%
Explanation:
Calculation for what would a 30% loss next year be outside the 95% confidence interval for the portfolio
The standard deviation of 95% confident will be 2
The first step is to find the Upper tail using this formula
Upper tail= Average return percentage +(Standard deviation of 95% confident *Standard deviation of its returns)
Let plug in the formula
Upper tail=0.113+(2*0.197)
Upper tail =0.113+0.394
Upper tail=0.507*100
Upper tail =50.7%
Second step is to find the Lower tail using this formula
Lower tail=Average return percentage -(Standard deviation of 95% confident *Standard deviation of its returns)
Let plug in the formula
Upper tail=0.113-(2*0.197)
Upper tail =0.113-0.394
Upper tail=-0.281*100
Upper tail =28.1%
Based on the above calculation the lower tail was -28.1% which means that it wouldn't in any way loss more than the 30% of it value next year outside the 95% confidence interval for the portfolio
