Answer: The base-rate fallacy
Explanation: The base rate fallacy also refered to as base rate bias is the tendency of an individual to erroneously predict the likely outcome of a situation by over looking all relevant data that was supposed to be taken into account. It is the preference of individuating information over relevant data. Stephon over looked the statistical data that his chance of making it into the NBA is low and prefer to go with the individuating information about how his friend's brother receives a lucrative contract to play for the NBA. This situation best illustrates base-rate fallacy.
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Answer: The Cairo Conference has been viewed as the least successful of the Allied conferences because little was achieved by way of formal agreements, and the informal decisions made there were quickly reneged at Yalta.
