Scenario Analysis
Scenario AnalysisExploring Different Futures
Imagine that you're facing a really important decision. It's one that could fundamentally affect your personal life, or determine the future of your business.
You've crunched the numbers and looked at the data, and everything seems fine. But deep down, you dread what might go wrong.
No one has a foolproof vision of the future, and even if your instincts are good, the outcomes that you predict could be disrupted by a range of different factors. On the other hand, things may turn out far better than you expected!
In this article, we explore how Scenario Analysis can bring these hopes and fears into the open, give you a rational framework for exploring them, and enable you to make the best possible choices.
Types of Scenarios
Challenging your assumptions about the future, and basing your plans and decisions on the most likely outcomes, means that your decisions will more likely be sound, even if circumstances change.
But what are the most likely outcomes? Author and corporate strategist Peter Schwartz, one of the pioneers of scenario thinking, identified the following common scenarios:
Evolution: all trends continue as expected. Things gently move toward a predictable end point.
Revolution: a new, disruptive, factor fundamentally changes the situation.
Cycles: what goes around comes around. Boom follows bust follows boom follows bust.
Infinite Expansion: exciting trends continue. Think of the computer industry in the 1950s.
Lone Ranger: the triumph of the lone hero against the forces of inertia.
My Generation: changes in culture and demographics affect the situation.
